Warning to PM on missile shield
The Age
By MARK FORBES
DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT
CANBERRA
Tuesday 5 February 2002
The Federal Government backed the proposed US missile defence shield last year despite intelligence agency warnings that the system was not in Australia's diplomatic or security interests.
Classified documents produced by the Office of National Assessments, which reports directly to Prime Minister John Howard, say the US National Missile Defence system could provoke a regional arms race. Marked "for Australian Eyes Only", the material also says Pine Gap would be a key component of the system.
The ONA is Australia's peak intelligence assessment body and coordinates the national intelligence effort. The briefing and issues paper on the missile proposal was produced by senior analysts last year while Australia's response was being debated.
"The introduction of an NMD system in the US would not be in Australia's diplomatic or security interests," it says. "Even if the NMD technology could be made to work, the reaction that such a system would provoke in Russia, China and perhaps in other countries in the Asia Pacific region would have a direct bearing on Australia's strategic outlook."
Introducing such a system could provoke an adverse reaction from countries vital to our regional security, with Russia and China moving to build up nuclear and missile forces. "In particular, Australia's regional security outlook would deteriorate as countries neighbouring China sought to acquire stronger military capabilities in response," it said.
Developing an NMD system would require the US to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, a pillar of arms control, the ONA paper warns. "Any weakening of international arms control regimes would have a negative impact on Australia's security," it says.
In December, US President George W.Bush announced the withdrawal. Mr Howard said Australia "recognised strategic circumstances had changed" and was "sympathetic to US interests in missile defences". Mr Howard said the US missile defence plans could enhance global strategic stability.
The issue was important to the Australia-US alliance, the ONA paper says. While the direct threat of a ballistic missile attack was low, further conflicts in Asia or the Middle East could see Australian forces threatened by missiles.
Australia would have a role in NMD, as the "joint facilities at Pine Gap will be a key component of the early warning system for any US missile defence system", the paper says,
"and Australia should encourage the US to avoid any unilateral decisions that would have broader implications for arms control and international security".
International non-proliferation agreements remained the only real guarantee of Australia's long-term security interests and,
"most importantly, it is in Australia's direct strategic interest that China is made aware of US missile defence plans."
Publicly at least, the government fell in behind US NMD proposals last year, with Foreign Minister Alexander Downer saying: "A missile defence system is not going to kill anyone, missiles will."
According to the ONA, missile defence systems alone would be insufficient to meet the threat posed by the spread of short and medium-range ballistic missiles.
The assessment also says the threat of long-range ballistic missiles is evolving more slowly than the US claims and that diplomatic and political factors have played an important part in moderating the threat.
"The main strategic threat is not from long-range missiles, but from the proliferation of short and medium-range missiles into regional security environments where nuclear, biological and chemical weapons are also a factor," it says.
Negotiations with North Korea over its missile program had demonstrated how "diplomacy and political compromise can be effective in dealing with emerging security threats".
There were real security concerns over Iran and Iraq and the paper advocated better diplomatic relations with Iran to reduce the threat.